Political barometer: the situation in the Middle East crystallizes all tensions

Yves Censi sur Public Sénat : la situation au Proche-Orient a cristallisé les tensions en France...

Yves Censi was on Sens Public to present our analyses for the month of October. Assessment: during these difficult weeks, the situation in the Middle East has crystallized tensions in France…

Each month, Mascaret (formerly Dentsu Consulting) publishes a political barometer in collaboration with ODOXA and Public Sénat, to take the temperature of #opinionpublique. In their column, “L’œil de l’expert”, Benjamin GRANGE and Yves CENSI look back on a difficult October:

“The situation in the Middle East crystallized all tensions and put politicians, both majority and opposition, in a delicate position: the conflict had a profound impact on the positions of political parties. The many debates surrounding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have inflamed and polarized #réseauxsociaux in France, with almost 10 million mentions and 40 million engagements in just a few weeks. While the numbers have fallen over time – we’re now at around half the October 7 rates – their longevity remains impressive: the French have taken hold of the debate, showing that the October 7 attack and the events that followed have touched the French deeply.

Two personalities were the crystallizers: Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Gerald Darmanin, who respectively came second (1,700,000 mentions) and third (1,090,000) in terms of media coverage this month – behind only the President of the Republic (2,500,000). The Franco-French controversies surrounding the conflict had a lot to do with it. Behind them, the other political leaders had a hard time making themselves heard, if they didn’t simply keep a low profile. The three notable exceptions, for better or worse, are Mathilde Panot (LFI), Yaël BRAUN-PIVET (Renaissance) and Meyer Habib (UDI). Their positions on the conflict – systematically contested – have propelled them to the forefront of the media in recent weeks. It’s also worth noting that the François Ruffin dynamic is quietly making headway, playing up the “moderate in relation to LFI” strategy, a niche that is nevertheless coveted (PC, EELV, PS).”

Watch the #SensPublic program presented by Thomas HUGUES on the Public Sénat website, where Yves CENSI is interviewed alongside Anne-Charlene Bezzina, Laetitia Krupa, Gael Sliman and Richard Werly. The full ODOXA-Mascaret survey is available below: