Laure Pallez, Senior Partner of Mascaret, spoke at the Rencontres de la gauche “la République en Commun”, at the invitation of Carole Delga, President of the Occitanie Region. The theme was “Europe, USA: how to fight populism”. Laure spoke in studio on this theme with Tova Kaplan President of the Harvard University Democrats and spokesperson for Kamala Harris. Some general remarks with 35 days to go before the US presidential election:

1/ The most frequent topic of conversation on RS in the USA is the economy: job creation, taxation, business regulation.

2/ Over the past 2 years, the world has become increasingly violent, with geopolitics invading the domestic sphere and the brutality of public debate sometimes reaching the point of lethality. In this environment, this raises the question of whether the US people are ready to elect a woman who hasn’t done her military service.

3/ Beyond the 2 candidates, what impact in Europe? China 🇨🇳 remains the US’s main rival 🇺🇸chaque countries have understood that no one will surpass the other. We are entering the era of cooperation (competition and cooperation). Europe 🇪🇺 is a commercial adjustment variable in this bilateral relationship, but it is raising ethical standards.

‼️ We are witnessing a high-tension election season in Georgia and Arizona, where Donald Trump has a slight lead due to a strong Republican base and KH’s lesser popularity than Biden (who was the man of the unions). The youth vote will be decisive, but it’s much more divided than you might imagine – it tends to be gendered, with 70% of young women supporting Kamala Harris to 53% of young men, the widest gap in American history according to Tova.

🔄 Joe Biden drops out, new turning point for 2024 presidential election 🇺🇸

Joe Biden announced last Sunday that he would not seek a second term, acknowledging the growing difficulties of his campaign. After a difficult debate against Donald Trump, and under pressure from his camp, concerned about unfavorable polls and insufficient fundraising, Biden chose to withdraw. He expressed his support for his vice-president, Kamala Harris, to take over. A new campaign begins.

To understand the stakes and dynamics of this new race, we invite you to read the article by Laure Pallez, Senior Partner at Mascaret, who, far from clichés, analyzes the driving forces behind the success of Donald Trump and JD Vance.

👉 Check out this article on Marianne.

February 2024: Attal backs down, Bardella at the pinnacle, Glucksmann emerges!

Every month, Mascaret (formerly Dentsu Consulting) publishes a political barometer in collaboration with ODOXA and Public Sénat, to take the temperature of #opinionpublique. Discover below an extract from the Expert’s Eye section by Benjamin GRANGE, CEO of Mascaret, and Yves CENSI, Senior Partner.

Among the leaders surveyed for the European elections, Jordan Bardella clearly dominates social networks, with 300,000 mentions and 2 million engagements, putting him in first place and demonstrating his high visibility and active online presence. In second place, Raphaël GLUCKSMANN shows a notable dynamic despite lower visibility than Bardella. As for Clément BEAUNE, despite being the least mentioned, he enjoys higher positive sentiment among the public, with 18% positive reactions, suggesting a stronger consensus potential despite his discreet presence on digital platforms.

Despite the activity on social networks of political leaders, the #euelections2024 in France generate little overall enthusiasm. Fluctuations in mentions and engagements potentially reflect a lack of general interest or media #saturation, posing challenges for voter mobilization.

Over the past month, political parties at both ends of the spectrum have been more active, reacting to farmers’ protests and positioning themselves on major issues such as the commemoration of the victims of October 7 and the Pantheonization of the Resistance fighters. This dynamic was marked by an intensification of interactions on #résréseauxsociaux, with a notable increase in the visibility of key figures such as François Ruffin on the left and Marine Le Pen on the right.

Gabriel Attal’s government was confronted with a series of controversial events, resulting in significant media coverage. Revelations about the wealth of certain members of the government, protests by farmers and mistakes made by ministers such as Dominique Faure were major points of attention in the media and on social networks. However, the attention paid to these #controversies tends to diminish rapidly after their initial revelation, although they do help to keep the government in the media spotlight.

Find out more about the full ODOXA-Mascaret survey below:

Gabriel Attal becomes France’s favorite politician… but Emmanuel Macron doesn’t benefit from appointing him to Matignon!

Every month, Mascaret (formerly Dentsu Consulting) publishes a political barometer, in collaboration with ODOXA and Public Sénat, to take the temperature of the #opinionpublique. Discover below an extract from the Expert’s Eye column by Benjamin GRANGE, CEO of Mascaret, and Yves CENSI, Senior Partner.

Gabriel Attal, who has just taken up his post at Matignon, has established himself as the political figure who has generated the most hits on #socialnetworks, with the exception of the President of the Republic. With over 1,400,000 mentions in the space of just one month, this represents a 600% increase on the previous month. This appointment has partially convinced the French, with Gabriel Attal benefiting from a significant rise in #sentiment towards him, but only for a short time.

While Gabriel Attal remains the undisputed #political figure of the new year, his ministers have also generated #engagement. Two personalities in particular crystallize the debate: Amélie OUDÉA-CASTÉRA, the new Minister of Education, saw an impressive rise in both mentions (+4615%) and commitments (+13403%), as did Rachida Dati, Minister of Culture (+2735% and +7828.6% respectively).

On the far right of the hemicycle, there was a big drop in interest in political headliners: Éric Zemmour (-28% mentions compared to last month), Marion Maréchal (-45.7%) and Marine Le Pen (only +6% due to Bruno Le Maire’s interpellation of her). On the left of the political spectrum, the observations are the same: Jean-Luc Mélenchon (-58.5%), Adrien Quatennens (-66%) and Fabien Roussel (-30.2%). Radical political parties let the newly-formed government take the media spotlight.

Find the full ODOXA-Mascaret poll below:

Immigration law: fever in the hemicycle, but no contagion on social networks, while Gérald Darmanin finds himself at the center of attention.

In collaboration with ODOXA and Public Sénat, Mascaret (formerly Dentsu Consulting) publishes a monthly political barometer to gauge the temperature of public opinion. Discover below an extract from the Expert’s Eye column by Benjamin GRANGE, CEO of Mascaret, and Yves CENSI, Senior Partner.

Immigration law: fever in the hemicycle, but no contagion on social networks. Debates on France’s immigration law in December 2023 revealed intense ideological differences in the National Assembly. But on the networks, the debate on the immigration law did not excite the crowds: it counted “only” 230,000 mentions and 2 million engagements. By way of comparison, over the same period, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, despite declining attention, racked up 5 million mentions and 15 million engagements.

Discussions on the abolition of the AME (with a small spike at the end of November during the passage of the bill through the Senate), article 3 on jobs in short supply, and political manoeuvring on the passage of the bill, have slightly revived the interest of Internet users. Within these conversations, the role of Parliament is being questioned: are the French genuinely interested in parliamentary debate, or are they content with the “49-3” of a strong executive?

Immigration law: fever in the hemicycle, but no contagion on social networks, while Gérald Darmanin finds himself at the center of attention.

The debates and negotiations gave pride of place to right-wing personalities, who saw a real upsurge in interest: Renaud MUSELIER (+70% of mentions compared to last month), Eric Ciotti (+40%), Laurent Wauquiez (+40%), Thierry Mariani (+20%)… but it was above all Gerald Darmanin who found himself the most exposed: he was at the heart of the debates on the networks too, with an increase of 45% of mentions and 105% of engagements! As the true bearer of the bill, he was its almost unique representative in the minds of the French. Rarely for the better, however, as the Interior Minister’s popularity is far from assured on social networks, where his detractors are particularly vocal – #DarmaninDémission having been a top hashtag over the period. In fact, the question of his possible departure was the most followed episode of the entire sequence, across the board!

Find out more about the full ODOXA-Mascaret poll below!