Odoxa-Mascaret political barometer: the consequences of the conflict in France

Mascaret - Baromètre 11.2023 - Conflit au Proche-Orient

A difficult month for all political staff, while the consequences of the conflict in the Middle East continue to have an impact on French society…

Every month, Mascaret (formerly Dentsu Consulting) publishes a political barometer, in collaboration with ODOXA and Public Sénat, to take the temperature of #opinionpublique. Discover below an extract from L’œil de l’expert by Benjamin GRANGE and Yves CENSI.

The French are gradually turning away from the subject of Israel-Palestine: while the conflict in the Middle East continues unabated, its influence on French society is diminishing. All political players are seeing their media presence decline, or at least remain stable, and mentions of Israel or Palestine on the networks are steadily decreasing, from an average of 700,000 mentions per week at the end of October to 200,000 mentions at the end of November. But the issue of #antisemitism leaves deep political scars… Conflict-related events remain the biggest media peaks of the last 30 days. This month’s major event, the march against anti-Semitism organized by Yaël BRAUN-PIVET and Gérard Larcher, provoked much debate. The absence of the President of the Republic was a topic for analysts, but for the general public, it was above all the issues around the #LFI and #RN parties that divided.

The RN and Marine Le Pen: the big winners? Rassemblement National figures have found themselves in the spotlight this month.The topic of the ex-Front National’s presence at a march against anti-Semitism raised questions on #socialnetworks. Marine Le Pen saw an impressive rise in mentions (+65%) and engagements (+140%), as did Jordan Bardella (+75% and +185% respectively).While the sequence benefited the former, reducing his negative sentiment from -85% to -65%, the latter’s intervention on BFMTV on November 5 (“I don’t believe Jean-Marie Le Pen was anti-Semitic”) was very badly perceived, temporarily sinking his perception from -45% to -70%.The figure of the former party boss thus remains a repulsive scarecrow for the French, without however harming his daughter.For his part, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is no longer the center of conversation, seeing his mentions drop by a third (-37%) and his rating stabilize at -65%, compared with an average of -80% since the start of the conflict.

Find out more about the full ODOXA-Mascaret survey below: