Presidential election 2022 – second round: the latest opinion poll by Mascaret, Odoxa & L’Obs

Un extrait de notre sondage Mascaret - Odoxa sur les intentions de vote à l'élection presidéntielle 2022

On this morrow after the election, a look back at the Mascaret opinion poll of voting intentions for the second round of the 2022 presidential election! Discover our estimates in collaboration with Le Nouvel Obs and our partners at Odoxa.

It is therefore Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen who will face each other on Sunday April 24, as we had estimated. We predicted 28% for the outgoing president (27.6% preliminary results) against 24% for the candidate of the Rassemblement National (23.4%). The margins of error for voting intentions are established at between plus or minus 1.4 and 3.1 points.

In the second round of the 2022 presidential election, french people would grant 54.5% of their votes to Emmanuel Macron against 45.5% to Marine le Pen.

But this lead is still just as fragile: only 41% of voters would vote for Emmanuel Macron against 34% for Marine Le Pen… the others (25% altogether) are still hesitating between these two candidates or a blank or null vote (record in sight with 15%). Game’s still on. The debate between the two rounds promises to be decisive.

In any case, in terms of sociology, two Frances will face each other. The “popular” categories (50% vs 28%) and 25-34 year olds (45%) will vote Le Pen more than Macron. Conversely, the wealthiest French (51% vs 30%) and the oldest (52% vs 22% among those over 65) will vote overwhelmingly for E. Macron rather than for Mr. Le Pen.

You can find all the figures below or on the Odoxa website.