Category: External News Flow

Today, September 3, China will stage a military parade to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. This is a strong signal, coming the day after the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), sometimes referred to as the NATO of the non-aligned countries. The group photo speaks for itself and represents 42% of the world’s population.

Objectives: 1) to counterbalance the West without copying its codes, despite the inspiration that ENA provided for the training of Chinese elites, and above all 2) to establish Xi Jinping’s leadership in China vis-à-vis his people and then external powers, “a security force that can be relied upon” according to Chinese commentators.

Everyone is playing their part pragmatically:

➡️The slogan of “unlimited friendship” between Russia and China? Under review, thank you Aaron Glasserman for your insights from 🇺🇸

➡️🐉🐘 Facing the United States, “the dragon (China) and the elephant (India) must get along,” Xi Jinping explained yesterday, without ever mentioning Donald Trump.

➡️Monday’s rejection by the E3 (France, UK, Germany) of the process to reinstate UN sanctions against Tehran and its nuclear program is significant.

India, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia… All are seeking to assert their autonomy.
A variable geometry multilateralism and “deals” that will be made on a case-by-case basis with Brussels or Washington.

Finally, the military parade is also a huge call for tenders with very tangible benefits for neighboring countries… and our French entrepreneurs abroad. Florian Bohême – Advisor to French citizens abroad in Cambodia

Diplomacy is also about numbers. With or without us.

Proximity breeds popularity.

With municipal elections just a few months away and against a backdrop of distrust and even acute mistrust of politics, a revealing survey by Public Sénat with ODOXA and Mascaret (formerly Dentsu Consulting) confirms that mayors rank first in terms of popularity among elected officials. With 60% of respondents having a good or very good opinion of them, mayors are far ahead of all other representatives in the political sphere.

However, this result should not obscure a worrying reality: the ever-increasing difficulties experienced by mayors in carrying out their duties, particularly tensions within municipal councils and the growing violence to which they are subjected. A worrying number of mayors are resigning (2,189 resignations between 2020 and 2025) or not standing for re-election because of this.

Will increasing mayors’ allowances and changing their status be enough to stem the tide of departures and attract new candidates? This is not a statutory issue, but a democratic one.

On June 21, 2025, Donald Trump took a major step with Operation Midnight Hammer.

After several days of threats and ultimatums, the US president demanded Iran’s “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER,” citing the defense of vital US interests. This phrase, borrowed from Eisenhower and laden with historical significance, echoes Japan’s surrender in 1945, which ended World War II. By invoking this memory, Trump seeks to place his actions in a tradition of assertive power, where peace is only negotiated after a show of force.

But this martial stance divides American opinion. While 73% of citizens consider Iran a serious threat, according to a recent hashtag#Fox poll, only pro-Trump Republicans overwhelmingly support military intervention, believing that “Israel’s war is America’s war,” a conviction that is particularly strong in Florida, a conservative stronghold led by Governor DeSantis, a fervent supporter of Israel.

Intervention 📺on June 22 on franceinfo

This morning, Laure Pallez, Senior Partner of Mascaret Partners, spoke on BFM Business to analyze the economic stakes of the US presidential election.

US presidential election, key insights :

• The economy, a central issue: The electoral debate in the United States remains largely dominated by economic questions.
• The battle for the middle classes: Each candidate is focusing his or her efforts on appealing to this crucial electorate.
• Geopolitical tensions: Relations with China are a particularly sensitive issue in this election.
• Europe’s role: in the face of the great powers, Europe seems to be taking a back seat in these discussions.

This election promises to be a historic moment, with a potentially contested outcome and global repercussions.

Watch the full intervention

Laure Pallez offered an in-depth and pertinent analysis of these issues on #GoodMorningBusiness. Whether you’re passionate about geopolitics, economics or curious to understand current international dynamics, we invite you to discover her intervention and our complementary analyses on our site.

Watch the full speech here and explore our articles to keep up to date with the major challenges shaping our world.

Laure Pallez, Senior Partner of Mascaret, spoke at the Rencontres de la gauche “la République en Commun”, at the invitation of Carole Delga, President of the Occitanie Region. The theme was “Europe, USA: how to fight populism”. Laure spoke in studio on this theme with Tova Kaplan President of the Harvard University Democrats and spokesperson for Kamala Harris. Some general remarks with 35 days to go before the US presidential election:

1/ The most frequent topic of conversation on RS in the USA is the economy: job creation, taxation, business regulation.

2/ Over the past 2 years, the world has become increasingly violent, with geopolitics invading the domestic sphere and the brutality of public debate sometimes reaching the point of lethality. In this environment, this raises the question of whether the US people are ready to elect a woman who hasn’t done her military service.

3/ Beyond the 2 candidates, what impact in Europe? China 🇨🇳 remains the US’s main rival 🇺🇸chaque countries have understood that no one will surpass the other. We are entering the era of cooperation (competition and cooperation). Europe 🇪🇺 is a commercial adjustment variable in this bilateral relationship, but it is raising ethical standards.

‼️ We are witnessing a high-tension election season in Georgia and Arizona, where Donald Trump has a slight lead due to a strong Republican base and KH’s lesser popularity than Biden (who was the man of the unions). The youth vote will be decisive, but it’s much more divided than you might imagine – it tends to be gendered, with 70% of young women supporting Kamala Harris to 53% of young men, the widest gap in American history according to Tova.

🔄 Joe Biden drops out, new turning point for 2024 presidential election 🇺🇸

Joe Biden announced last Sunday that he would not seek a second term, acknowledging the growing difficulties of his campaign. After a difficult debate against Donald Trump, and under pressure from his camp, concerned about unfavorable polls and insufficient fundraising, Biden chose to withdraw. He expressed his support for his vice-president, Kamala Harris, to take over. A new campaign begins.

To understand the stakes and dynamics of this new race, we invite you to read the article by Laure Pallez, Senior Partner at Mascaret, who, far from clichés, analyzes the driving forces behind the success of Donald Trump and JD Vance.

👉 Check out this article on Marianne.

February 2024: Attal backs down, Bardella at the pinnacle, Glucksmann emerges!

Every month, Mascaret (formerly Dentsu Consulting) publishes a political barometer in collaboration with ODOXA and Public Sénat, to take the temperature of #opinionpublique. Discover below an extract from the Expert’s Eye section by Benjamin GRANGE, CEO of Mascaret, and Yves CENSI, Senior Partner.

Among the leaders surveyed for the European elections, Jordan Bardella clearly dominates social networks, with 300,000 mentions and 2 million engagements, putting him in first place and demonstrating his high visibility and active online presence. In second place, Raphaël GLUCKSMANN shows a notable dynamic despite lower visibility than Bardella. As for Clément BEAUNE, despite being the least mentioned, he enjoys higher positive sentiment among the public, with 18% positive reactions, suggesting a stronger consensus potential despite his discreet presence on digital platforms.

Despite the activity on social networks of political leaders, the #euelections2024 in France generate little overall enthusiasm. Fluctuations in mentions and engagements potentially reflect a lack of general interest or media #saturation, posing challenges for voter mobilization.

Over the past month, political parties at both ends of the spectrum have been more active, reacting to farmers’ protests and positioning themselves on major issues such as the commemoration of the victims of October 7 and the Pantheonization of the Resistance fighters. This dynamic was marked by an intensification of interactions on #résréseauxsociaux, with a notable increase in the visibility of key figures such as François Ruffin on the left and Marine Le Pen on the right.

Gabriel Attal’s government was confronted with a series of controversial events, resulting in significant media coverage. Revelations about the wealth of certain members of the government, protests by farmers and mistakes made by ministers such as Dominique Faure were major points of attention in the media and on social networks. However, the attention paid to these #controversies tends to diminish rapidly after their initial revelation, although they do help to keep the government in the media spotlight.

Find out more about the full ODOXA-Mascaret survey below:

Gabriel Attal becomes France’s favorite politician… but Emmanuel Macron doesn’t benefit from appointing him to Matignon!

Every month, Mascaret (formerly Dentsu Consulting) publishes a political barometer, in collaboration with ODOXA and Public Sénat, to take the temperature of the #opinionpublique. Discover below an extract from the Expert’s Eye column by Benjamin GRANGE, CEO of Mascaret, and Yves CENSI, Senior Partner.

Gabriel Attal, who has just taken up his post at Matignon, has established himself as the political figure who has generated the most hits on #socialnetworks, with the exception of the President of the Republic. With over 1,400,000 mentions in the space of just one month, this represents a 600% increase on the previous month. This appointment has partially convinced the French, with Gabriel Attal benefiting from a significant rise in #sentiment towards him, but only for a short time.

While Gabriel Attal remains the undisputed #political figure of the new year, his ministers have also generated #engagement. Two personalities in particular crystallize the debate: Amélie OUDÉA-CASTÉRA, the new Minister of Education, saw an impressive rise in both mentions (+4615%) and commitments (+13403%), as did Rachida Dati, Minister of Culture (+2735% and +7828.6% respectively).

On the far right of the hemicycle, there was a big drop in interest in political headliners: Éric Zemmour (-28% mentions compared to last month), Marion Maréchal (-45.7%) and Marine Le Pen (only +6% due to Bruno Le Maire’s interpellation of her). On the left of the political spectrum, the observations are the same: Jean-Luc Mélenchon (-58.5%), Adrien Quatennens (-66%) and Fabien Roussel (-30.2%). Radical political parties let the newly-formed government take the media spotlight.

Find the full ODOXA-Mascaret poll below:

Immigration law: fever in the hemicycle, but no contagion on social networks, while Gérald Darmanin finds himself at the center of attention.

In collaboration with ODOXA and Public Sénat, Mascaret (formerly Dentsu Consulting) publishes a monthly political barometer to gauge the temperature of public opinion. Discover below an extract from the Expert’s Eye column by Benjamin GRANGE, CEO of Mascaret, and Yves CENSI, Senior Partner.

Immigration law: fever in the hemicycle, but no contagion on social networks. Debates on France’s immigration law in December 2023 revealed intense ideological differences in the National Assembly. But on the networks, the debate on the immigration law did not excite the crowds: it counted “only” 230,000 mentions and 2 million engagements. By way of comparison, over the same period, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, despite declining attention, racked up 5 million mentions and 15 million engagements.

Discussions on the abolition of the AME (with a small spike at the end of November during the passage of the bill through the Senate), article 3 on jobs in short supply, and political manoeuvring on the passage of the bill, have slightly revived the interest of Internet users. Within these conversations, the role of Parliament is being questioned: are the French genuinely interested in parliamentary debate, or are they content with the “49-3” of a strong executive?

Immigration law: fever in the hemicycle, but no contagion on social networks, while Gérald Darmanin finds himself at the center of attention.

The debates and negotiations gave pride of place to right-wing personalities, who saw a real upsurge in interest: Renaud MUSELIER (+70% of mentions compared to last month), Eric Ciotti (+40%), Laurent Wauquiez (+40%), Thierry Mariani (+20%)… but it was above all Gerald Darmanin who found himself the most exposed: he was at the heart of the debates on the networks too, with an increase of 45% of mentions and 105% of engagements! As the true bearer of the bill, he was its almost unique representative in the minds of the French. Rarely for the better, however, as the Interior Minister’s popularity is far from assured on social networks, where his detractors are particularly vocal – #DarmaninDémission having been a top hashtag over the period. In fact, the question of his possible departure was the most followed episode of the entire sequence, across the board!

Find out more about the full ODOXA-Mascaret poll below!

On the occasion of #TheGoodForum, Benjamin GRANGE, CEO of Mascaret (formerly Dentsu Consulting), presented a study on citizens’ perceptions of local authorities’ CSR projects and practices.

Citizens have particular expectations when it comes to waste reduction, pollution control and energy transition. However, concrete elements such as the development of bicycle paths are less popular, underlining the complexity of aligning objectives and actions for local authorities. We need to reconcile the expectations of our constituents with the constraints imposed by the ecological transition.

There is also a real communications challenge for local authorities: only 1 in 2 French people claim to be informed by their local authority of the CSR initiatives it has put in place. This figure falls to 44% for the State.

For local authorities, rising to the challenge means navigating between citizens’ expectations, political considerations and the challenge of renewing mandates.

Watch the full presentation below: